Sunni rebels launch a surprise offensive in Aleppo, overwhelming Syrian government forces and reigniting the dormant civil war.
At a Glance
- Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leads a major offensive against Assad’s forces in Aleppo
- Rebels have seized control of over 50 towns and villages
- Over 300 people, mostly combatants, killed in the deadliest fighting in years
- Russia and Iran condemn the offensive and pledge support to Syrian government
- Offensive seen as an attempt to force regime negotiations from a weakened position
Surprise Offensive Shatters Ceasefire
In a sudden turn of events, Sunni rebel forces have launched a major offensive in Aleppo, Syria, catching government-aligned troops off guard and reigniting significant fighting in the region. The attack, led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist faction of al-Qaeda, has shattered the relative calm that had persisted since the Russia-Turkey mediated ceasefire in March 2020.
The offensive, dubbed “Deterrence of Aggression” by HTS, has resulted in the rebels seizing control of more than 50 towns and villages. HTS claims the attack was in response to increased artillery and drone strikes by government-aligned and Iranian forces. The initial assault caught Assad’s troops unprepared, with HTS sharing images of captured soldiers and equipment.
Opposition fighters have seized control of most parts of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city, after launching a surprise offensive against government forces, a war monitor reports. https://t.co/9uMIYULV2e
— dpa news agency (@dpa_intl) November 30, 2024
Escalating Casualties and International Response
The renewed hostilities have led to a significant loss of life. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), over 300 people, mostly combatants, have been killed in the recent fighting, marking it as the deadliest clash in years. The UK-based monitoring group reported that fighters used two car bombs to advance into Aleppo neighborhoods, signaling the intensity of the rebel offensive.
In response to the rebel advance, the Syrian Ministry of Defense has reported repositioning to strengthen defenses and prepare for a counterattack. Russia and Iran, long-time supporters of the Assad regime, have condemned the offensive and pledged their support to Syrian government forces. Russian aircraft have already begun assisting Assad’s troops in countering the rebel attack, with the SOHR reporting 23 air strikes by Syrian and Russian planes on the rebel stronghold of Idlib.
Strategic Implications and Regional Dynamics
The timing of this offensive is significant, coinciding with a Hezbollah-Israel truce in Lebanon and increased Israeli attacks on Iran-backed groups in Syria. Analysts suggest that the rebels perceive this as an opportune moment, given the regional and geostrategic shifts, including a weakened Iran and a cornered Syrian regime.
“They’re thinking this is a time when the Iranians are weakened, when the regime is cornered and when Turkey is emboldened vis-a-vis Russia,” said Dareen Khalifa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group.
The Syrian government has suffered its biggest territorial loss in years, with regime lines crumbling unexpectedly. Rebels have cut off the Damascus-Aleppo M5 highway and now control the strategic M5-M4 junction. Despite Russian air cover, government forces offered little resistance, highlighting their weakness and possible complacency. This offensive is seen as a way to force the regime to negotiate from a weakened position, potentially reshaping the dynamics of the long-standing Syrian conflict.
