New York Exodus: Who’s Cashing Out?

New IRS and state figures show New York lost tens of thousands of tax filers and nearly $10 billion in income in a single year, raising fresh alarms about the state’s tax base.

Story Highlights

New York saw a net outflow of about 72,000 to 74,482 tax returns between 2022 and 2023.
Roughly $9.9–$10 billion in adjusted gross income left New York in the latest data window.
Over several years, New York’s net income losses rank behind only California, while Florida posts large gains.
Competing research says top earners move less than others and did not spike departures after 2021 tax hikes.

What The Latest Data Show About New York’s Tax Base

Internal Revenue Service migration files and state tax reports show New York lost a net 74,482 returns between 2022 and 2023, with the outflow concentrated among adults aged 26 to 44. News reports drawing on federal data also cite a similar net loss of just under 72,000 filing households in that period. Analysts estimate the change in filing households aligns with about $9.9 to $10 billion in adjusted gross income leaving the state, reflecting fewer high-earning filers and the movement of middle-age workers.

The reported income shift adds to a multi-year trend. Coverage of Internal Revenue Service figures indicates New York’s taxable income losses rank just behind California’s over recent years, while Florida posts major inflows. One review pegs New York’s cumulative net income loss above $100 billion since 2019, with Florida gaining far more over the same horizon, reinforcing a map of winners and losers as people take their paychecks to lower-tax or lower-cost states.

How Leaders And Skeptics Frame The Stakes

State leaders now warn that the tax base is under strain as high earners and working-age residents relocate, which can ripple through budgets that rely on personal income tax. Supporters of higher rates argue the state can still raise revenue without sparking mass exits, pointing to research that shows millionaires rarely move. They add that schools, transit, and safety nets need stable funding to keep families and businesses in place, not cuts that could deepen decline in struggling regions.

Critics of “tax the rich” policies see the new figures as proof that higher burdens push out growth. They point to the scale of lost returns and income and note that Florida has surpassed New York in the number of resident millionaires, reflecting years of steady moves to lower-tax states with warmer climates and cheaper housing. They warn that when high earners leave, they take capital, small business investment, and philanthropy with them, raising the risk of service cuts or new taxes on those who remain.

What The Research Actually Says About Tax-Driven Moves

Peer-reviewed and state-linked studies find that top earners move far less than others and that recent high-income surcharges did not trigger a clear rise in departures. The Fiscal Policy Institute’s review of New York’s 2023 filing data reports that high earners leave at about one-quarter the rate of the broader population in normal years, and that millionaire migration returned to pre-pandemic patterns by 2022. Their earlier statewide study also ties most recent moves to pandemic shifts and remote work, not tax changes.

Mamdani’s FY2027 budget is a $125.8 billion exercise in fiscal illusion, class-war posturing, and deferred catastrophe.

It balances this year only through a combination of Albany bailouts, pension-accounting sleight-of-hand, one-shot “savings,” a new tax on second homes, and…

— Shadow Banned (@ttstrac) July 7, 2026

These findings do not erase the budget risk from fewer filers and less income. The Internal Revenue Service flow still shows a large net out-migration, and the state’s own migration data identify younger, working-age adults as a key driver of the loss. That mix matters because personal income tax collections lean heavily on high earners, while growth also depends on middle-class households. If both groups thin out, the state faces tougher choices on spending, investment, and future tax design.

What To Watch Next: Revenue, Rates, And Retention

Lawmakers will test whether targeted tax relief, lower housing costs, and faster permit approvals can slow outflow. Business groups want fewer fees and simpler rules to keep founders and retirees from leaving. Advocates for higher taxes stress closing loopholes and investing in transit, safety, and schools to hold talent. Both sides say the current path feels broken to regular people. Many see a system that responds to special interests while families face rising rents, heavy taxes, and weak services.